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☆ Americans aren't having enough kids. That's bad news for the economy — and immigration may be the answer.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China, Japan, and Italy are all battling dwindling birth rates — and their struggles are a reminder of an issue that could eventually become a problem for the US. Elon Musk, with his three-year-old son X AE A-Xii at the 2024 Super Bowl, thinks low birth rates pose a risk to civilization. Meanwhile, economists have warned for years about plunging birth rates in Italy . AdvertisementChina has also struggled to raise its birth rate. Congress has also played up the potential for immigration to boost the economy over the longer term.

Persons: —, millennials, Zeds, Zers, you’ve, Marc Ostwald, That’s, Elon Musk, Musk, X, Rob Carr, Italy party’s, ”, ADM’s, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, “, ” Ostwald, Martin Heinrich Organizations: Service, United Nations, Business, ADM Investor Services International, Congressional, Republican, Democrat, Economic Committee Locations: China, Japan, Italy, India, “ Japan

☆ Peace settlement could fuel inflation in Israel, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeace settlement could fuel inflation in Israel, economist saysMarc Ostwald, global strategist and chief economist at ADM Investor Services, discusses the Bank of Israel's decision to keep it's rates unchanged at 4.75% and what it could mean for the country's economy long term.

Persons: Marc Ostwald Organizations: ADM Investor Services, Bank of Locations: Israel

☆ Taylor Swift and Beyoncé won't prop up the US economy much longer, with Americans' COVID-era savings running dry
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But economists are warning the bump in growth won’t last forever, with Americans’ COVID-era savings running dry. AdvertisementAdvertisementTaylor Swift, Beyoncé, and the "Barbenheimer" box-office craze all gave the American economy a much-needed boost this summer. AdvertisementAdvertisementFunflation won't lastAmericans' summer spending splurge on concert and film tickets didn't come out of nowhere. "You've run down the savings rate so a lot of people have basically been spending well beyond what they've been earning. That's why the Taylor Swift economy isn't likely to last.

Persons: Taylor Swift, ’, —, Marc Ostwald, Anna Wong, Eliza Winger, they've, You've, that's, Freddie Mac, Beyonce Organizations: Service, ADM, Services International's, Bloomberg, ADM ISI's, Federal Reserve Locations: American

☆ Stocks and gold cheer U.S. inflation picture, while dollar slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 10, 2023. The annual 5% headline rise for U.S. inflation was the smallest since May 2021 and down from 9.1% last June. The dollar index was down 0.2%, near its lowest in two months, while U.S. stock futures , rose 0.1-0.2%, suggesting a modest rally at the open. The Aussie dollar rose 0.6% on the back of surprise surges in both Chinese exports, which rose 14.8% compared with last March, and domestic Australian jobs. Alibaba shares (9988.HK) fell by as much as 5% at one stage, but later pared losses to close 2% lower.

☆ A global recession could be coming - at least that's what commodity prices seem to say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, Robin Brooks, is watching weakening commodity prices. Specifically, Brooks pointed out that oil and copper prices have slumped roughly 6% each since mid-January, despite China's easing of zero-COVID policies. "Whatever is going on in China, there's no sign that the end of zero-COVID is boosting global growth, based on commodity prices," Brooks said in a tweet. "Oil prices never went up and copper prices are falling after the initial China reopening excitement fades." He pointed to the sharp change in oil prices last week as an example of shallower liquidity.

☆ Dow futures sink over 300 points, as investors dial back hopes for the Fed to switch course on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Dow futures sank over 300 points Friday as US stocks looked set for another day of steep losses. Investors are waking up to the reality the Fed will push borrowing costs above 5%, analysts said. A bigger-than-expected drop in retail sales underlined that a recession is set to hit the US. Futures on the Dow Jones were down 0.9%, or 310 points lower, at 7:10 a.m. At the same time, a bigger-than-expected drop in retail sales underlined that a recession will hit the US economy next year.

☆ Shares brush off China COVID curbs, dollar retreats
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar pulled back from strong overnight gains while oil edged up after Monday's volatile sell-off. The MSCI All-World index of shares (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.2%, putting it on course for a second month of increases - its longest stretch of gains since late 2021. The dollar of the gains that took it to a 10-day high on Monday, when investors ditched risk assets over China's COVID flare-ups and was last down 0.2%. The dollar came under pressure in particular against the euro and the yen , which rose by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Oil rose on Tuesday, a day after Saudi Arabia denied a media report that it was discussing an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies.

☆ Global shares shake off China COVID curbs, but investors stay cautious
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar pulled back from strong overnight gains while oil took a pause from Monday's retreat. The MSCI All-World index of shares (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.2%, putting it on course for a second straight month of increases - its longest stretch of gains since late 2021. The dollar of the gains that took it to a 10-day high on Monday, when investors ditched risk assets over China's COVID flare-ups and was last down 0.2%. The dollar came under pressure in particular against the euro and the yen , which rose by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, a day after Saudi Arabia denied a media report that it was discussing an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies.

LONDON/SINGAPORE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose on Friday for the first time in three days ahead of key U.S. jobs data, as investors took heart from reports China may relax its COVID rules, boosting major currencies against the dollar and prompting a 2% rally in oil. The Hang Seng (.HSI) rose 5.4%, bringing gains for the week to 8.75%, its strongest weekly performance in a decade. This has been one of the factors that has enabled the Fed to relentlessly raise interest rates to tame inflation. In commodities, oil bounced, fuelled by hopes for a relaxation of zero-COVID rules in China, which is home to some of the world's biggest energy consumers. Brent crude rose 3% to $97.66 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 3.5% to trade at $91.26 a barrel.

LONDON/SINGAPORE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose on Friday for the first time in three days ahead of key U.S. jobs data, as investors took heart from reports China may relax its COVID rules, boosting major currencies against the dollar and prompting a 2% rally in oil. The Hang Seng (.HSI) rose 5.4%, bringing gains for the week to 8.75%, its strongest weekly performance in a decade. This has been one of the factors that has enabled the Fed to relentlessly raise interest rates to tame inflation. In commodities, oil bounced, fuelled by hopes for a relaxation of zero-COVID rules in China, which is home to some of the world's biggest energy consumers. Brent crude rose 2% to $96.96 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 2.8% to trade at $90.63 a barrel.

☆ We will have yet another Turkish lira crisis on our hands, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe will have yet another Turkish lira crisis on our hands, strategist saysMarc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services International discusses Turkey's unorthodox monetary policy in a time of soaring inflation.

☆ Sterling falls for a fifth day; turmoil dogs the bond market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The pound fell for a fifth day on Tuesday as the turmoil engulfing UK government bond markets forced the Bank of England to step in yet again to attempt to stem a damaging sell-off in the country's debt. Sterling fell 0.3% to $1.1036, and was also down 0.3% versus the euro at 88.00 pence. If you have a look at the population of holders of long-dated UK assets - anything that is 15-20 years - it's mostly domestic funds," ADM Investor Services Chief Economist Marc Ostwald said. The pound promptly nosedived and the gilts market went into a tailspin, putting pension funds at risk of insolvency. But sterling's problems extend beyond the liquidity crunch in the gilts market.

☆ UK gilts suffer biggest collapse since March 2020 meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

read moreThe potential scale of additional government borrowing implied by Truss's plans has undermined investor confidence in gilts over the last month. And it just keeps on looking like spend, spend, spend; borrow, borrow, borrow," Ostwald said. read moreThe gap between 10-year British and German benchmark bond yields touched 156.4 basis points on Thursday, the highest since 2015. The 10-year gilt yield has risen 70 bps in September so far, following a 94 bps increase in August that had been the biggest in 36 years. Taking August and September thus far together, the increase in yield would be the largest since October and November 1979, according to Refinitiv data.

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